Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Myth: Bowl games have longer and more frequent TV timeouts.

In the wake of the Oregon - Auburn championship game, some have suggested that Oregon's blur offense was hindered by the frequency and duration of television timeouts. There seem to be a commonly held belief that college bowl games are stretched longer by TV networks who want to capitalize on increased viewership by increasing commercial time.

I've seen this argument and ones like it in many places, but no where could I find any verification of how many or how long TV commercial breaks are in NCAA bowl games compared to regular season games. (... and I'm fairly good with the google machine). What I did find out was that the the length and numbers of TV commercials are usually spelled out in the contracts with the networks (which could be proprietary info).

Since I have the championship game as well as many regular season games on my DVR, I decided to check and see for myself. I counted and timed the commercial breaks from two games, the BCS National Championship game and the Thursday night prime time game, Oregon vs UCLA. What I found was somewhat surprising.

The number of commercials were almost the same. There were nine commercial breaks in each half of the BCS NC game (including the break between the quarters) and there were nine in the first half and eight in the second during the UCLA game.

The length of the commercials weren't much different either. My timing was rather crude because I just used the broadcast time of the DVR recorder which doesn't display less than full minutes, but then I averaged the times for all commercial breaks. The average time for the BCS championship game was only 6 seconds longer than the average time for the UCLA game. (2:33 vs 2:27).

More interestingly, the length of the halftime for each game was exactly the same... 23 minutes. (The NCAA rule book says 20 minutes, unless agreed upon by both teams to be different).

I think this says that the ESPN contract stipulated that the BCS championship game be broadcast under the same rules as any other prime time NCAA game.

Perhaps, if I get more time, I will see how other games on other networks or in other time slots compare. I suspect it won't be much different.

No doubt, some bowl games may have different TV contracts and may stipulate longer breaks, but it should be clear that the idea that Oregon is somehow at a disadvantage in bowl games because of longer and more frequent TV timeouts is based on a myth.

It was fun to watch the UCLA game again. Oregon's offense was in no way hindered by lengthy commercial time-outs... and UCLA did in fact use time outs to slow down the tempo. As far as I could tell, Auburn never called a time out to slow down Oregon.

But wait... After I did the above analysis someone correctly pointed out that the Auburn game was quite a bit longer than the UCLA game. The Auburn game was 3 hrs 34 mins while the UCLA game was only 3 hrs 11 mins.

True the elapsed time of the Auburn game was 23 minutes longer than the UCLA game... but Oregon played two other games whose elapsed time was longer than the Auburn game (not counting the weather-delayed Tennessee game).

Arizona was 5 minutes longer (3:39) and Arizona St was 12 minutes longer (3:46) than the Auburn game (3:34). The USC game was only 2 minutes less than the Auburn game and the Stanford game was 7 minutes less. These games were all on ABC/ESPN. In fact the average elapsed time of all the ABC/ESPN games was 3:27 (including UCLA which was the shortest and again excluding Tennessee). Auburn was longer than the average by 7 minutes. (Interestingly I inadvertently picked the shortest of the ABC/ESPN games to compare with the Auburn game.)

The average elapsed time for Oregon games not on ESPN/ABC was 3:08, which is 18 minutes less, so it's clear that ESPN has a negotiated a better TV contract for themselves. But I still think these facts suggest the National Championship game and regular season ESPN games were broadcast under very similar rules.

The Auburn game had a lot of injury time outs and official reviews. Games that are close will also evoke a lot more time outs at the ends of both halfs and Auburn called a lot at the end of the 1st half. These are the types of factors that may extend elapsed times. And we all remember how many injury timeouts there were in Oregon's longest game with Arizona St.

And BTW... last year's Rose Bowl had an elapsed time of 3:11. This was less than the average game length for all of Oregon's games in 2009. Can we put the bowl game TV timeout length myth to bed?

Here is a table showing the elapsed time from the box score for all Oregon games in 2010. The Network televising the game is also listed

New Mexico3:09OSN
Tennessee4:24ESPN2
Portland St3:09FSN
Arizona St.3:46ABC
Stanford3:28ESPN
Washington St.3:09-
UCLA3:11ESPN
USC3:32ABC
Washington3:19ABC
Califonia3:08Versus
Arizona3:39ESPN
Oregon St3:14ABC
Auburn3:34ESPN

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

2010 Crimson Aggie Depth Chart

Here is a link to my interactive depth chart for the 2010 New Mexico State Aggie Football.

http://bit.ly/aggiedepthchart

Currently showing the spring roster, check back for updates at the end of spring ball and in the early fall.

Crimson Aggie Spring Football Preview


2010 NMSU Football Preview
Bill Ogden (aka Chile Duck)

(Games Played in 2009 are in parenthesis)

Defensive Line


Returning starters: Pierre Fils, Jr. (13); Donte Savage, Jr. (13); John Finau, Sr. (13)

Other returners: Kawika Shook, Sr. (12); Branden Warner, Sr. (4); David Niumatalolo, Jr.; Chance Roberts, RFr.; Anthony Smith Jr.; Rex Meikel, RFr.

Departed: E.J. Cannon, Sr. (13); Justin Alford, Sr. (13); Ka'ua Adolpho, Jr (11); Chris Romero, Sr. (8); JD Davis, Jr.

On the way:  fall: David Mahoney, JC; Tommy Stuart, JC; Augafa Vaaulu, Fr.

Notes: The DLine seems have good experience coming back and good help on the way. At DE, returning starters Pierre Fils and John Finau. 
Anthony Smith was injured and did not play in 2009.

Linebackers. 

Returning starters: none

Other returners: B.J. Adolpho, So. (9); Boyblue Aoelua, Jr. (9); Kenny Evora, Sr. (9); David Quiroga, So. (9); Numi Lolohea, So. (6); Bryan Bonilla, RFr.; Tony Epenesa, Sr.; Ruben Martinez, So.

Departed: Ross Conner, Sr. (13);  Jamar Cotton, Sr. (13); Sam King, Sr. (11); Jason Scott, Sr. (13)

On the way:  spring: Frank Padilla, JC; Mike Matthews JC; fall: Dylan Davis, Fr.; Anthony Joyner, Fr.

Notes: The Aggies lost all of their starters so are looking for Frank Padilla to step in right away. Kenny Evora played TE, LB and ST. in 2009. David Quiroga and Numi Lolohea primarily played on special teams. Ruben Martinez was out with a knee injury in 2009. Mike Matthews is a preferred walk-on from Victor Valley College in Victorville CA.


Defensive Backs

Returning starters: Jonte Green, Jr. (13);  Stephon Hatchett, Sr. (13); Davon House, Sr. (13); Alphonso Powell Sr. (13)

Other returners: Lorenzo Caldwell, Sr. (5); Donyae Coleman, Jr. (10); Michael Zant, Jr. (5); Ben Bradley, Jr.; Devin Jackson, RFr.;

Departed: Chris Buckner, Sr. (12); Junior Fasavalu, Sr. (12);

On the way: spring: Justin Smith, Fr. fall: Shamar Gaines, JC; Darien Johnson, Fr.

Notes: Ben Bradley was ineligible in 2009. Donyae Coleman moved from WR to DB mid-way through 2009.  Justin Smith signed in 2009 as a gray shirt.

Offensive Line. (Games Played in 2009 in parenthesis)

Returning starters: Dwayne Barton, Sr. (13); Mike Grady, Jr. (13); Sioeli Fakalata, Sr. (13)

Other returners: Mike Yocius, So. (13), Patrick Blount, Sr. (2); Dejuan Yates, Jr.; Ruben Escarsega, Sr.; Maveu Heimuli, So.; Matt Passwaters, Sr.; Robert Rodriguez, Sr.; Jake Swenson, RFr.; Jourdan Rodriguez, RFr.;

Departed: David Norman, Sr. (13); Joseph Palmer, Sr. (13); Joe Suder, Sr. (11);  JR Saulietis, Sr. (3); Kyle Smith, Jr. (3); Joel Buschmann, Jr.; Eric Carlson, Fr.;

On the way: fall: Aundre McGaskey, Jr.; Dylan Lusk, Fr.; Davonte Wallace, Fr.

Notes: Barton, Grady and Fakalata are well established returning starters, so the question will be, who replaces the departing starters Norman and Palmer.   It seems that Kyle Smith and Joel Buschmann would have been candidates but are no longer on the roster. 

Of the other returners, Mike Yocius has played the most as a true Freshman, but primarily on special teams. Maveu Heimuli wasn't here last year and is returning from a year long mission but he started as a redshirt Freshman two years ago. Patrick Blount also was a starter two years and is an experienced backup from last year.

Or maybe someone will step up like Dejuan Yates, a JC transfer last year who was recruited at DL and redshirted and has now been moved to the offense. Or, perhaps one of the other redshirts/grayshirts will be in the mix for a starting position, Matt Passwaters, or Jake Swenson.

Tight End. 

Returning starters:
Kyle Hipp, Sr. (12); Kyle Nelson, Sr. (13)

Other returners:
Ronny Torres, Sr. (13), Spencer Diaz, Sr. (12);

Departed:
Ryan Franzoy, Sr.;

On the way:
fall: Jackson KaKa Fr.;

Notes: Hipp and Nelson shared starting duties in 2009. Ronny Torres played in two-TE formations as a blocking TE. Spencer Diaz spent the 2009 season on the defense seeing the field mostly on special teams

Wide Recievers
. 

Returning starters: Todd Lee, Jr. (12);

Other returners: Marcus Allen, Sr. (11); William Bullock, Sr (9); Julius Fleming, Jr. (9); Darrius Preston, So. (8); Joe Cordova, So.; Mark Hilgers, RFr.; Barry Huntley, Sr. Jeremy Little, So. (3);

Departed: Marcus Anderson, Sr. (11);

On the way: fall: Taveon Burke, Fr.; Adam Shapiro, Fr.; Daniel English, Fr.

Notes: Shapiro and English will bring some much need size to the WR position in the fall.

Running Backs. 

Returning starters: Seth Smith, Sr. (13); Ronald Opetaia, Jr. (12)

Other returners: Robert Clay, So (8); Donavan Roberts, Jr. (12), Victor Johnson, So (7); James Hall, RFr.;
    Fullbacks: Brandon Perez, Sr.; Teka Salicido, Sr,;

Departed: Tonny Glynn, Sr. (13); Marquell Colston Sr. (6);

On the way:  spring: Marquese Dunn Fr.  fall: Kenny Turner, JC

Notes: New comer Marquese Dunn was part of the 2009 signing class but gray shirted. JC All-American Kenny Turner will be joining the team after the spring. Victor Johnson mostly saw action on special teams. Opetaia was primarily a blocking fullback. Perez was injured and did not play in 2009. D Roberts saw plenty of action on special teams.
Colston was suspended mid-way through the 09 season for a felony battery charge that was later dropped.


Quarterbacks.
 

Returning starters: Jeff Fleming, Jr. (13);

Other returners:  Trevor Walls, So. (10); Tanner Rust, RFr.; Scott Galland, Jr.; Rush Atkinson, RFr.

Departed: none

On the way: spring: Matt Christian, JC; fall: Andrew Manley, Fr.

Notes: Fleming started 9 games and Walls 4 games in 2009.

Kickers. 

Returning starters: Kyle Hughes, Jr. (13)

Other returners: Jordan Davenport, So.(1); Zach Diaz, RFr.;

Departed: none

On the way:  fall: Tyler Stampler, JC

Kyle Hughes did it all in 2009; punts, field goals, and kickoffs. Tyler Stampler should give him some competition in the fall.

Friday, December 25, 2009

Rose Bowl tailgate

Hi,  I'd be happy to share what I have at my Rose Bowl tailgate.  I usally make too much food  for people to eat, so I can increase without too much
difficulty.   I'll make sure I have plenty of Green Chile stew.. (made with braised pork, & fresh New Mexico green chile). The chile marinated grilled salmon and brats will be on a first come basis.   I will probably have plenty of beer, club soda, and other snacks but if you want something else (or don't trust my beer selection) you should bring what you want to drink or any other snacks you want to eat or share.  I'll have a small gas grill if you want to throw something on.

I'm going to park on the golf course north of the stadium and finding me will be a problem. Send me your cell phone number and I'll text my location early the morning of New Years Day. I have a GPS so I can send lat-long coordinates but unless  you have a hand held GPS device (iphone?) I don't know how useful it will be. I will also send grid coordinates according to the a map of the golf course I made which is linked below.  The map has instructions on how to specify locations.

http://crl.nmsu.edu/~ogden/oregon/RoseBowlParkingLocator.pdf

I'll text as much detail as I can  I'll put up a sign with eDuck logo too.  There
are also big balloons with numbers marking parking lots, so hopefully that will help.

I hope to get to the golf course really early so I should have a good (close) space, but you never know.  I will be walking over to the parade (I have some grandstand tickets near the start !) so won't be starting the tailgate until I get back  (maybe 10:30 to 11ish?).

You can send me your contact cell phone (that can receive text messages) or an email address if you have mobile emaii to chileduck@gmail.com or send a PM on eDuck.   I'll send you my cell phone number so you can contact me if you get lost.

It will be a great day to be a DUCK!

--Bill Ogden  *Chile Duck*


Saturday, April 25, 2009

Here is the depth chart I put together for the NMSU Aggies Spring Game:

Quarterback: Trevor Walls OR Jeff Fleming , -- Scott Galand, Matt Parsons
Running back: Tonny Glynn, Marquell Colston, Seth Smith, Donavan Roberts, J'Barrie Jones
Full back: Ronald Opetaia, Victor Johnson
Wide Receiver: Julius Fleming, Saint Shabazz, Kenny Evora
Tight End: Kyle Nelson, Ronny Torres
Left tackle: Joe Suder, David Norman
Left guard: Joseph Palmer, Mike Yocius, Ruben Escarsega
Center: Mike Grady, Mike Yocius
Right guard: Sioeli Fakalata, Sunia Vaitai
Right tackle: Dwayne Barton, JR Saulietas
Slot receiver: Marcus Anderson, Antonio Williams, Baer Philipbar
Wide receiver: Todd Lee, Jeremy Little, Barry Huntley, Joe Cordova

Defensive end: Donte Savage, Chris Romero
Defensive tackle: E.J. Cannon, Djuan Yates
Defensive tackle: John Finau, Kawika Shook
Defensive end: Pierre Fils, Justen Alford, JD Davis
WILL linebacker: Jason Scott, Spencer Diaz, Randy Franroy
MIKE linebacker: Ross Conner, Mumi Lolohea
SAM linebacker: Sam King, Dawan, Jerry Jones
Cornerback: Davon House, Ben Bradley
Cornerback: Jonte Green OR Chris Buckner, Luc Cadet
Safety: Stephon Hatchett, Michael Zant
Safety: Junior Fasavalu, Alponso Powell

Friday, April 24, 2009

I wonder how the Aggies will look in their first spring game under Walker?

Monday, January 8, 2007

Why whould anyone visit. A Duck fan... what is that? A Duck fan must like ducks, why else would they be a fan? But what Kind-of-Duck? All Ducks? Mallards? Or University of Oregon Ducks? Yes, that must be it. A sports fan. There you go.

And where is Chile land? Do you mean Chile, the country in South America? Nope.
The Chile as in green chile... grown in southern New Mexico... in the Mesilla valley. Las Cruces